Traverse City Real Estate Blog

Mortgage rates once again inched lower this week, lowering the cost of borrowing and increasing housing affordability.

"Most mortgage rates eased to all-time record lows this week as fourth quarter growth in the economy fell short of market projections,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.

Here’s a closer look at rates for the week ending Feb. 2:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged a new record low of 3.87 percent, with an average 0.8 point, dropping from last week’s 3.98 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.81 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: also reached new lows this week, averaging 3.14 percent, with an average 0.8 point. Last week, 15-year rates averaged 3.24 percent and a year ago at this time 15-year rates averaged 4.08 percent.
• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.80 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 2.85 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.69 percent.
• 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.76 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, inching up slightly from last week’s 2.74 percent average. A year ago, 1-year ARMs saveraged 3.26 percent.

Source: Freddie Mac

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The “government, the mortgage industry, and forces of nature all shook the housing market in 2011,” according to a recent Time magazine article, which highlights the key issues that had the greatest impact on the real estate market this year--and what’s expected to have a major impact in the new year as well.

Here are a few of the issues that the Time magazine article by Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist, notes as having some of the greatest impact:

1. The robo-signing scandal

The issue: Banks were accused of approving numerous foreclosures without proper reviews when a robo-signing scandal first broke in October 2010, continuing well-into 2011.

The fallout: Banks slowed their processing of foreclosures greatly in 2011, making sure to take extra precautions. Regulators and states are working on a settlement with banks over the scandal — one that could include reducing loan balances of current home owners, if approved. Once a settlement is in place, housing experts predict the pace of foreclosures to pick up in 2012.

2. Natural disasters

The issue: A series of natural disasters wreaked havoc on real estate in 2011, from tornados, floods, and hurricanes. The National Flood Insurance Program was pushed into the spotlight, a program still financially strapped after Hurricane Katrina. The program’s insurance premiums were not fully covering insurance claims in disasters this year, according to the Time magazine article.

The fallout: For home owners living in flood-prone areas, “you can’t get a mortgage if you don’t have flood insurance,” the Time magazine article notes. “Without NFIP, housing markets in these areas would skid to a stop.” NFIP recently received an extension until May 2012 but experts say the future of the program still remains uncertain.

3. The conforming loan limit

The issue: In October, the government lowered the conforming loan limit for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as those insured by the Federal Housing Administration from $729,750 to $625,500 in most areas. The real estate industry urged the government to keep the conforming loan limits higher. In November, the government raised the loan limits back up for FHA loans, but they left out Fannie and Freddie loans.

The fallout: “Mortgage lenders are willing to charge lower rates for loans that are backed by Fannie or Freddie; with a lower conforming loan limit, a small number of loans that used to qualify for federal backing no longer do,” the Time magazine article notes.

Read more about the key issues for the real estate industry in 2011.

Source: “5 Events That Really Mattered for Housing in 2011 -- and Beyond,” Time Magazine (Dec. 29, 2011)

Read More:
What's in Store for Housing in 2012?

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Homeowner insurance policies can vary greatly, and if home owners aren’t careful, they may find their claims denied when disaster strikes, according to a study to be published early next year by the University of Chicago Law Review.

While home insurers once used standard policy forms by the Insurance Services Office, now some are coming up with their own policies and a few tweaks in the wording can mean trouble for some home owners, according to the study. Home owners should read the fine-print and carefully review their policies to examine what’s covered and what’s not, the study notes. For example, some policies include mold and lead coverage; other policies do not.

According to United Policyholders, here are a few questions home owners can ask insurance agents when shopping around for a home owner’s insurance policy:

• What is the coverage for water damage from sewer or pipe problems?
• What is the coverage for any damage to the foundation — is it completely covered, limited, or excluded completely?
• Will items be paid at “replacement value” or “actual cash value”?

Study author Daniel Schwarcz, a University of Minnesota Law School associate professor, told The Wall Street Journal that he is urging state insurance departments to post their insurance policies online so they can be reviewed closer by consumer groups and home owners. In October, Nevada began posting policy forms for its largest home and auto insurers, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Source: “A Home-Insurance Trap?” The Wall Street Journal (Dec. 3, 2011)

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4 percent, with an average 0.7 point, ticking slightly up from last week’s 3.98 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.46 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.30 percent, with an average 0.8 point, holding at last week’s average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.81 percent.
• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.90 percent, with an average 0.6 point, dropping slightly from last week’s 2.91 percent average. Last year at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.49 percent.
• 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.78 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, dropping from last week’s 2.79 percent average. A year ago at this time, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.25 percent

Existing-home sales improved in October while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

Total existing-home sales — completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.

Room for Improvement

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market has been fairly steady but at a lower than desired level. “Home sales have been stuck in a narrow range despite several improving factors that generally lead to higher home sales such as job creation, rising rents, and high affordability conditions. Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process,” he explained.

“A higher rate of contract failures has held back a sales recovery. Contract failures reported by NAR members jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September, and were only 8 percent a year ago, so we should be seeing stronger sales,” Yun added.

Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including home inspections and employment losses. “Other recent factors include disruption in the National Flood Insurance Program, and lower loan limits for conventional mortgages, which paradoxically force some of the most creditworthy consumers to pay unnecessarily higher interest rates,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.07 percent in October from 4.11 percent in September; the rate was 4.23 percent in October 2010.

NAR President Moe Veissi said consumers can increase their odds of obtaining a mortgage by being aware of how credit scores are determined. “If you want to get a mortgage, don’t buy a car or take on new installment debt or credit cards,” he said. “Pay all your bills on time, maintain old credit lines, and don’t use more than 30 percent of your credit limit. REALTORS^® can help you understand the issues surrounding access to affordable credit, in addition to helping you find the right home and negotiate terms.”

A Mixed Bag

An ongoing positive trend is a steady decline in the number of homes on the market. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.3-month supply in September. Inventories have been trending gradually down since setting a record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $162,500 in October, which is 4.7 percent below October 2010. Distressed homes — foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts — slipped to 28 percent of sales in October from 30 percent in September (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales); they were 34 percent in October 2010.

“In some areas we’re hearing about shortages of foreclosure inventory in the lower price ranges with multiple bidding on the more desirable properties,” Yun said. “REALTORS^® in such areas are calling for a faster process of getting foreclosure inventory into the market because they have ready buyers. In addition, extending credit to responsible investors would help to absorb inventory at an even faster pace, which would go a long way toward restoring market balance.”

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October, little changed from 30 percent in September and 29 percent in October 2010; investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 18 percent of homes in October, compared with 19 percent in September and 19 percent in October 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of transactions in October, up from 32 percent in September; they were 32 percent in October 2010.

Single-family home sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in October from 4.31 million in September, and are 13.8 percent higher than the 3.85 million-unit pace one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $161,600 in October, which is 5.8 percent below October 2010.

Regional Performance

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in October but are 10.5 percent above the 534,000-unit level in October 2010. The median existing condo price was $160,300 inOctober, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.1 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in October but are 1.4 percent above October 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $224,400, down 5.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent in October to a pace of 1.10 million and are 19.6 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $132,800, which is 4.7 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual level of 1.94 million in October and are 14.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $145,700, down 1.6 percent from October 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in October and are 15.5 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the West was $207,500, which is 1.6 percent below a year ago.

Source: NAR